Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
